Cheltenham at Risk: The Community Risk Register
The seven top risks in Gloucestershire's Community Risk Register, scored for likelihood and impact, with our live pages, alert feeds and helplines for each.
- 7 top risks for Gloucestershire
- 2024 register, the latest edition
- Cyber attack most likely
- RSS Feed subscribe via our feed/rss →
Emergencies That Could Affect Cheltenham
The Gloucestershire Local Resilience Forum, the partnership of emergency services, councils, the NHS and other organisations that plans for emergencies in the county, publishes a Community Risk Register. It names the emergencies most likely to affect Gloucestershire, or that would do the most harm, and scores each one for likelihood and impact.
The 2024 register lists seven top risks: terrorism, cyber attack, infectious disease, extreme weather, electricity supply failure, flooding and fuel supply disruption. Below, each risk sits on a matrix of likelihood against impact, with a short summary of the advice and links to the pages on this site where you can follow it live, from flood warnings and power cuts to the UK threat level and cyber security.
For phone numbers to call in an emergency, see our helplines and contacts. More advice is on the forum’s Gloucestershire Prepared site.
Gloucestershire's Risk Matrix
Each risk is scored from 1 to 5 for how likely it is to happen and how much harm it would do to people's health, daily lives, the local economy and the environment. The higher and further right a risk sits, the more serious it is.
| Impact | Likelihood 1 | Likelihood 2 | Likelihood 3 | Likelihood 4 | Likelihood 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Infectious disease |
Terrorism |
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| 4 | Electricity supply failure Flooding Fuel supply disruption |
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| 3 | Extreme weather |
Cyber attack |
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| 2 | |||||
| 1 |
The Seven Risks and Where to Follow Them
Terrorism
The threat is real but attacks are rare. In a firearms or weapons attack the national advice is Run, Hide, Tell: get to safety if you can, hide if you can’t, and call 999 when it is safe.
- UK threat level and history
- Report suspicious activity (Action Counters Terrorism)
- Gloucestershire Police terrorism advice
Infectious disease
Another pandemic or serious outbreak is still considered likely after COVID-19. The UK Health Security Agency watches for new diseases, and advice would be shared nationally and locally. Good hand and face hygiene remains the best everyday protection.
Electricity supply failure
A national or regional blackout is unlikely, but even a local power cut can be serious, and storm damage to the network can take days to repair. Call 105 to report a cut, keep a torch rather than candles, and join your supplier’s Priority Services Register if you are vulnerable.
Flooding
Gloucestershire flooded badly in 2007, 2012, 2014 and the winter of 2019 to 2020, and almost 11,000 homes and businesses in the county have a 1% chance of river flooding in any year. Surface water flooding after short, heavy rain is harder to predict. Sign up for free Environment Agency flood warnings and make a flood plan.
- Live flood warnings and river levels
- Flood zones map
- Flood warning history
- The summer 2007 floods
- Sign up for flood warnings
- Make a personal flood plan
Fuel supply disruption
Fuel is usually easy to get, but supply problems, technical faults, strikes or protests have caused short shortages in recent years. Don’t panic buy, as it leaves less for emergency services and people who depend on driving.
Cyber attack
Rated the most likely risk in the county. Cyber crime is growing and can hit essential services and businesses as well as people’s own accounts, devices and data.
- Cyber security in Cheltenham
- Report fraud and cyber crime (Action Fraud)
- NCSC advice for individuals and families
Extreme weather
Heatwaves, heavy rain, snow and strong winds are expected to become more frequent and more intense as the climate warms. Check forecasts and Met Office warnings before you travel, and keep warm clothing and water in the car in winter.
How to Be Prepared
If you or someone else is in danger, call 999 and follow the advice of the emergency services. If an emergency affects you only indirectly, the advice is usually to go in, stay in, tune in: go inside a safe building, stay there until told otherwise, and follow local radio, TV and trusted social media for updates.
- Check your home and contents insurance covers the risks most likely to affect you.
- Pack a grab bag with medicines, copies of important documents, a torch, a phone charger and some cash.
- Decide where you would stay, and how you would get there, if you had to leave home.
- Agree a simple emergency plan with your household, family and neighbours.
- Keep the numbers you might need to hand: our helplines and contacts page lists power, gas, water, flooding, police and NHS lines.
- Follow the combined alerts feed for flood warnings, power cuts, wildfire risk, road closures, school closures and threat level changes in one place.
Gloucestershire Prepared has guidance for families, businesses and community groups writing an emergency plan, and the government's Prepare site covers the same ground nationally. To report a problem such as a blocked drain or fallen tree, use Fix My Street.
Frequently Asked Questions
What Is the Community Risk Register?
- It is a public summary of the emergencies most likely to affect Gloucestershire, or that would cause the most harm if they happened. It is written by the Gloucestershire Local Resilience Forum, which brings together the emergency services, councils, the NHS, the Environment Agency, businesses and voluntary groups to prepare for, respond to and recover from emergencies.
Does the Register Cover Cheltenham Specifically?
- It covers the whole county, Cheltenham included. The scores aren't broken down by town, so our pages add the local detail, such as live flood warnings on the River Chelt and power cuts on Cheltenham postcodes.
How Are the Risks Scored?
- Each risk gets a score from 1 to 5 for likelihood and 1 to 5 for impact. The forum starts from the government's National Risk Register and adjusts it with local knowledge from its member organisations.
Which Risk Is Most Likely?
- A cyber attack, the only risk with the top likelihood score of 5, though its impact is scored 3. Terrorism and infectious disease have the highest impact score, 5.
Why Aren't Other Risks Listed?
- The register doesn't try to list every possible emergency. It names only the risks that are most likely to happen or would have the most impact.
About This Data
Risk scores and advice from the Gloucestershire Community Risk Register 2024 (PDF), published by the Gloucestershire Local Resilience Forum on Gloucestershire Prepared. Last updated 24 October 2026. This page is updated when a new edition of the register is published.